Tag: United States

American financial service firm Robinhood has taken a step to allow its users to predict the outcome of the forthcoming United States presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024. It was announced on Monday that eligible users could now trade a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump contract.

Harris Vs. Trump – Users Bet

According to Robinhood, only users who are United States citizens and have an open individual investing account are eligible to join the event prediction game and acquire an event contract to speculate on the election outcome.

“We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold,” Robinhood stated.

The contracts are priced between $0.02 and $0.99. Notably, the contract price indicates the likelihood of a candidate’s victory. If the Robinhood market opens with a 62% chance of a Trump win, users could buy Trump contracts at $0.62 and Harris contracts at $0.38, and vice versa.

Users can purchase a maximum of 5,000 election contracts, and those who predict the correct candidate will receive a $1 payout on each contract. The rewards will be distributed on January 7-8, 2025.

Furthermore, with the U.S. election just eight days away, Robinhood’s presidential betting market will operate for six days as it’s designed to be active only on business days (24/5).

Polymarket Results

With the U.S. election drawing close and the two popular candidates, Trump and Harris, campaigning for the position, the international election prediction market, Polymarket, has reflected voters’ choice for the presidential position.

Notably, Polymarket predictions for Trump have gone high, as he sees a 62% win chance, while Harris’s probability of winning is 32%.

As reported by CNBC, a French man controls four Polymarket accounts. He has built a solid pro-Trump position, betting about $28 million for the republican candidate to occupy the presidential seat after the election.

Election Prediction Markets

Robinhood entered the political prediction market amid an ongoing case between Kalshi, a renowned event prediction platform, and the U.S. Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

This year’s election markets have raised various conflicts. A major shortcoming is that not enough people are trading, which can distort predictions and lead to inaccurate forecasts. This deters the belief in the election betting market and its ability to reflect voter sentiment without bias.

While awaiting a court decision next month, U.S. prosecutors have requested that Ilya Lichtenstein, the mastermind behind the 2016 hack of the British crypto exchange Bitfinex, which resulted in a staggering loss of over $8 billion, be sentenced to five years in prison for his crime.

Almost 120,000 BTC Theft

Lichtenstein carried out one of the most significant Bitcoin hacks in history. Using his technical and cybercrime skills, he breached the Bitfinex system and stole a massive 119,756 BTC worth over $8 billion.

His rapper wife, Heather Morgan (Razzlekhan), joined him on the mission. She helped her husband launder the stolen funds by depositing and withdrawing from crypto exchanges and darknet markets.

Even after finding out in 2020 that her husband had stolen the funds, she assisted him in hiding the money they used to purchase gift cards and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

The notorious couple did not plead guilty to the crime until last year after the court arrested them and demanded clarifications on how they had made such a massive sum of money.

Under the terms of his guilty plea, Lichtenstein will give up all earnings from his crime.

Five Years Behind Bars

Government lawyers have analyzed the crime and expressed that a strong prison sentence will help break the cycle of young cybercriminals whose illicit activities online are “normalized in a way that trivializes the impact on the victims.”

However, the prosecutors are seeking to lower Lichtenstein’s prison sentence to five years, considering that he assisted their investigations earlier this year when he testified on behalf of the government in the Bitcoin Fog money laundering case.

Since Morgan was involved in the mission, the prosecutors do not plan to let her go scot-free. Instead, they have suggested an 18-month prison sentence for her, given that she only helped in laundering the funds and was not directly involved in her husband’s hacking crime.

Meanwhile, recent hacks have rocked the crypto industry, underlining the need for investors and traders to be more safety-conscious. The market lost about $120 million in over 20 hacks in September.