American financial service firm Robinhood has taken a step to allow its users to predict the outcome of the forthcoming United States presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024. It was announced on Monday that eligible users could now trade a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump contract.
Harris Vs. Trump – Users Bet
According to Robinhood, only users who are United States citizens and have an open individual investing account are eligible to join the event prediction game and acquire an event contract to speculate on the election outcome.
“We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold,” Robinhood stated.
The contracts are priced between $0.02 and $0.99. Notably, the contract price indicates the likelihood of a candidate’s victory. If the Robinhood market opens with a 62% chance of a Trump win, users could buy Trump contracts at $0.62 and Harris contracts at $0.38, and vice versa.
Users can purchase a maximum of 5,000 election contracts, and those who predict the correct candidate will receive a $1 payout on each contract. The rewards will be distributed on January 7-8, 2025.
Furthermore, with the U.S. election just eight days away, Robinhood’s presidential betting market will operate for six days as it’s designed to be active only on business days (24/5).
Polymarket Results
With the U.S. election drawing close and the two popular candidates, Trump and Harris, campaigning for the position, the international election prediction market, Polymarket, has reflected voters’ choice for the presidential position.
Notably, Polymarket predictions for Trump have gone high, as he sees a 62% win chance, while Harris’s probability of winning is 32%.
As reported by CNBC, a French man controls four Polymarket accounts. He has built a solid pro-Trump position, betting about $28 million for the republican candidate to occupy the presidential seat after the election.
Election Prediction Markets
Robinhood entered the political prediction market amid an ongoing case between Kalshi, a renowned event prediction platform, and the U.S. Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This year’s election markets have raised various conflicts. A major shortcoming is that not enough people are trading, which can distort predictions and lead to inaccurate forecasts. This deters the belief in the election betting market and its ability to reflect voter sentiment without bias.
