Bitcoin has yet to see the massive increases many analysts predicted would happen in October. The crypto market is also seeing the same sentiment play out, as most significant cryptocurrencies are still struggling above key support.
Questions about the reason for the apex coin’s stagnant state are increasing, as several bullish metrics—one of which is the upcoming US elections —many believe should push prices.
The crypto market is divided in its support for the two major candidates in the election, with some presuming that most prefer Donald Trump. Polymarket released new data showing him leading with a 56% winning chance. However, the cryptocurrency has yet to react.
Macroeconomics is also bullish, with several regions printing positive signs. For example, the United States’ inflation fell to its lowest point in three years. The labor market is also positive, as jobless claims are lower than expected.
Thailand is also considering letting private funds invest in Bitcoin. This announcement will open the way for more BTC exposure to the country’s citizens. However, all these fundamentals have yet to positively impact apex coin as prices continue plummeting.
Why the Downtrend?
Several speculations surround the most recent declines. One such is that institutions reduced their buying pressure. However, on-chain data tells a different story. Exchange reserves are depleting as buying continues. The exchange netflow total is also negative, indicating less inflow of the asset into these trading platforms.
Another is that there is still fear of further geopolitical escalation as Israel has yet to respond to Iran’s attacks. However, US stocks are seeing notable increases. S&P reclaimed key levels a few hours ago with huge prospects following the CPI release.
Others say that a large bag holder is selling. The speculation is plausible as the United States received a go-ahead from a court to sell over 69,000 BTC ($4.4 Billion). Although the country made no announcements, pundits claim it follows the same pattern Germany did during its unloading.
Will Bitcoin Surge Again This October?
Several indications point to the possibility of a change in price trajectory. Other on-chain metrics are still bullish despite the ongoing downtrend. For example, traders are buying ETFs, and the fund premium is positive.
Fewer HODLers are willing to sell as there is a moderate number of wallets with notable unrealized profit. Derivatives are also favorable as funding increases. More long position holders are increasing the amount they staked to reduce liquidation amidst the ongoing selling sentiment in the market.
The spot market may react to the increased funding rates and surge. Nonetheless, on-chain data shows that the relative strength index is printing bullish signals. This indicates that the apex coin has been oversold and that a reversal is imminent.
Nonetheless, if the large selloff persists, prices may continue plummeting. It remains to be seen how prices will play out in the coming days.
Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin had another significant decline on October 10, losing the $60k support. It retraced to a low of $58,800 before rebounding. Although recovering, it is exchanging between the 78% and 61% Fibonacci retracement levels, which means it is still at risk of further decline.
Using the highlighted metric, the asset may reclaim $60,000 in the coming hours. However, the bulls must defend this mark or risk losing the $58k support. A flip may result in a drop to the $100 fib level at $56,600.
Nonetheless, the pivot point standard suggests a further climb after flipping $60k. The apex coin will hover above the pivot as the bulls look to push prices closer to the first pivot resistance. This may also guarantee the flip of the $64k barrier. Such flip may also result in retesting $66k
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