Has the Bitcoin Bull Run Ended? MVRV Turns Negative


This negative shift in MVRV might signal the beginning of bearish activity, but a recovery above the moving average would likely place bulls back in control.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, experienced a significant crash to $54,500 before partially recovering. This drop has triggered caution among investors, particularly in light of key on-chain metrics such as the Bitcoin MVRV (market value to realized value).

For the first time since March 2023, Bitcoin’s MVRV momentum has turned negative, according to On-Chain College. This shift might signal the beginning of bearish activity. Bitcoin bulls are keenly watching this metric, hoping it will regain a 1-year moving average, which could indicate a continuation of higher prices. Historically, sustained periods below these levels have been precursors to bear markets. A recovering MVRV above the moving average would likely place bulls back in control.

On-Chain College has noted that opinions are mixed regarding this current period of weakness. While some consider it a fantastic buying opportunity, others consider it a warning of further decline. Analysts are divided, with some predicting consolidation or a further drop below current levels, while others are hopeful for a quick rebound. Despite the current market conditions, On-Chain College believes a prolonged year-long downtrend, indicating a bear market, is unlikely at this stage.

Cause for Alarm?

A significant worry for Bitcoin investors is the potential sell-off from Mt. Gox creditors, who recently received their BTC after approximately ten years. The defunct crypto exchange is set to distribute nearly 140,000 bitcoins over the next few months. The recent movements of Mt. Gox wallets have already caused jitters in the crypto market, contributing to the overall unease.

 Adding to investor concerns are reports of the German government selling confiscated BTC. The government has continued its selling spree, moving an additional 1,000 bitcoins earlier today. This action has further dampened market sentiment. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and informed during these uncertain times.