CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju tweeted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has ended. He forecasts 6–12 months characterized by bearish or sideways price action. Notably, three weeks ago, Ju had maintained a bullish outlook for the pioneer crypto.
Is the Bull Cycle Over?
According to Ju, his outlook is derived from a technical analysis that applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to key on-chain indicators such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio), SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss).
The CEO claims the analysis method computes a 365-day moving average to pinpoint “inflection points” where the trend shifts, marking a turning point in Bitcoin’s price history. He asserted that every on-chain metric points to a bear market as fresh liquidity dries up and new whales sell their Bitcoin at lower prices.
Ju emphasized that he double-checked the data, ensuring the accuracy of his analysis, which clearly warns that the previous upward momentum is stalling. He noted that his subscribers received this alert a few days ago, allowing them to adjust their positions before he publicly shared the update.
The CEO’s current outlook significantly departs from his previous bullish sentiment. He believed the bull cycle was intact, even adding that a 30% drawback from its all-time high is usual. The aggregator platform CoinMarketCap data reveals that the Giant crypto has experienced a 29.8% decrease from its peak of over $109,100.
Other Industry Players’ Stance
While Ju has turned bearish, some industry leaders maintain a more optimistic outlook on Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently predicted that Bitcoin could experience a short-term dip to $70,000 before surging to $250,000 by the end of the year. He attributes this to macroeconomic factors and increased institutional adoption.
Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, has weighed in on Bitcoin’s recent price movements, asserting that the volatility mirrors broader distress in risk assets rather than problems peculiar to Bitcoin. Kendrick remains bullish, emphasizing that his $200,000 target for Bitcoin is undaunted.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on Wednesday, with most traders expecting the central bank to keep rates unchanged. In anticipation of this meeting, traders are actively managing risks. One whale trader closed all short positions in the crypto market, securing a profit of $9.46 million, according to data reported by Lookonchain.
